Thanksgiving Changes?

Good morning

Winter wx lovers from across the east have been waiting for their return to a cold pattern and its fun to try an speculate when this will happen and it will happen. Im hearing alot of naysayers from various places across the internet...saying it holds off til January. Let me tell you right up front that they have no idea what they are talking about. There is no accurate way to forecast weather as far out as January.

Im becoming excited for some mischief a couple of days after thanksgiving...models are starting to converge on a major storm. Some of the latest are showing the potential for some snow across the Tennessee valley as a strong piece of upper level energy rotates thru the area. Its still a good ways out and climatology argues against it so dont go holding me to that just yet.

I was obviously wrong about the current system but I have much more confidence in the post thanksgiving system. This system could very well be the one that sends into more sustainable cold and I would say the chances of that are pretty good as teleconnections sorta point to that but these colder airmasses have had a tendecy to be replaced with warmer airmasses lately...I think that changes with the late month system. The thanksgiving system also has the potential to produce some severe wx where the best dynamics locate theirselves. It was about this time last year when we entered the colder regime and my money is on the same thing this year.

There will be quite the warmup before this system and that just tends to make things more interesting when the colder airmass colides with the warmer one. Anyways it looks like one of the bigger systems to come thru since Halloween and I expect extreme weather from it in several places...but it will be hard to pinpoint these locations this far out...so as this timeframe gets closer I will try to do just that...Its off to work now and you have a good day.


Toot