Good Evening
After taking the evening look at model data...I have seen something different than the cool-warm-cool signal that has been dominate for the past 45 days. Alot of the models are trying to move the intermittent SE ridge to more of a intermittent Bermuda type ridge. If this happens troughs will be able to dig further into the southeastern united states and maybe into south florida.
This happenes alot when you see a -NAO/-QBO regime start to take hold of the pattern. We have been lacking in the -NAO department as I truly thought it would have taken hold by now....but that has not been the case. Time will tell and we will see if this is just another confusing aspect or if it is indeed a true signal for sustained cold.
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Euro Showing Arctic Outbreak
The euro model has recently started picking up on a real mccoy Arctic outbreak...it's still out in the long range but it is something to keep an eye on
Reply To Snowman At TN WX
Snowman said
"So this is really a subjective point of view for everyone. Accumulation could mean different things for different people."
My response
NO I'm sorry Snowman that is totally false....you or anyone else cannot decide what accumulation means....that word already has a definition and there is no time restsraint on it. If snow accumulates on the ground that is accumulation...THIS IS NOT ROCKET SCIENCE.
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Response to Bugalou at TN WX forum
Bugalou said
"This went pretty much how I thought it would, and overall, the high rates were able to pile up some snow in some areas, but all of this snow quickly melted down to generally a 1" or less slush, and in some cases completely gone. I am certainly not trying to toot my own horn, so I hope no one takes it like that, but this seems to prove that with warm ground temps (50-60 degree range) combined with marginal boundary layer temps, significant accumulations just cannot occur. Some may argue that accumulations around 3"-4" or so did occur in isolated areas, but when they last less than an hour, it is just hard to be happy with that (I need to make a dang snow man people!)"
My response
Well that's where you are COMPLETELY and totally wrong and deep down inside.... you know it.
It went nothing like how you thought it would....Significant accumulations (3" or more) did occur in several places..but yet you and Kevin refused to accept that those results could possibly happen and continued to downplay the situation. And now you want to try an claim some false victory and not eat any crow? Whatever dude..lmao
You need to eat your crow like a man...but I know you and your clique will refuse to do so and carry on like the weenies that y'all are. LMAO
"This went pretty much how I thought it would, and overall, the high rates were able to pile up some snow in some areas, but all of this snow quickly melted down to generally a 1" or less slush, and in some cases completely gone. I am certainly not trying to toot my own horn, so I hope no one takes it like that, but this seems to prove that with warm ground temps (50-60 degree range) combined with marginal boundary layer temps, significant accumulations just cannot occur. Some may argue that accumulations around 3"-4" or so did occur in isolated areas, but when they last less than an hour, it is just hard to be happy with that (I need to make a dang snow man people!)"
My response
Well that's where you are COMPLETELY and totally wrong and deep down inside.... you know it.
It went nothing like how you thought it would....Significant accumulations (3" or more) did occur in several places..but yet you and Kevin refused to accept that those results could possibly happen and continued to downplay the situation. And now you want to try an claim some false victory and not eat any crow? Whatever dude..lmao
You need to eat your crow like a man...but I know you and your clique will refuse to do so and carry on like the weenies that y'all are. LMAO
Monday, November 28, 2011
East TN snow update
Good evening
The upper level low has become a little more predictable now and am already hearing some reports of snow in the highest of elevations in the smokies . Chattanooga area may start seeing snow around midnight and its becoming clear to me that the southern valley may indeed pick up a dusting or so. Not a travel hazard or anything ...probably just on the grassy surfaces and car-tops. Some areas out west have already picked up a couple of inches and could still get a couple of more before it moves east. Going to be an interesting day tomorrow and its nice to see those warm ground temps keeping the snow from accumulating..lolz
Toot
The upper level low has become a little more predictable now and am already hearing some reports of snow in the highest of elevations in the smokies . Chattanooga area may start seeing snow around midnight and its becoming clear to me that the southern valley may indeed pick up a dusting or so. Not a travel hazard or anything ...probably just on the grassy surfaces and car-tops. Some areas out west have already picked up a couple of inches and could still get a couple of more before it moves east. Going to be an interesting day tomorrow and its nice to see those warm ground temps keeping the snow from accumulating..lolz
Toot
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Final Call
Good evening...I have been banned by the nice folk at Tennessee wx so you will now have to come here to see any of my thoughts and here is my call for this system
Forecast Update
Due to the deformation band setting up west of here....the snow totals will have to be adjusted downward. This ULL probably still has a few more tricks up its sleeves as we are now getting into the timeframe of where modeling errors will have huge impacts on a forecast.
Southern Valley...Little to no accumulation
Central Valley...Dusting to a half inch
Northern Valley and the tri cities...Half inch to two inches
Plateau area....2 to 4 inches
Mountains....3 to 6 inches with more possible in localized areas
Southern Valley...Little to no accumulation
Central Valley...Dusting to a half inch
Northern Valley and the tri cities...Half inch to two inches
Plateau area....2 to 4 inches
Mountains....3 to 6 inches with more possible in localized areas
Saturday, November 26, 2011
Snow pushed back a day
The forecast below hasn't changed but the days of the snow has...instead of seeing snow falling Monday and Tuesday...The snow will now be falling Tuesday and wednesday.....I may do a call map Sunday night as models get a better handle on things..... but dont expect it to be very detailed because making call maps for ULL's is very difficult and usually have a bad verification rate.
Friday, November 25, 2011
My Rough Thoughts About Accumulations
Good Afternoon
Models are starting to come into better agreement and im going to go ahead with a forecast strictly for east TN based mainly off the GFS ensembles and my model of choice is the GFS op since it has been more consistent than the others. It did stray away from the closed low over the TN valley for a few runs but as expected it has trended right back to it and now the nam is hinting at the same posibility. The Euro has been all over the place with the cutoff low so have discounted it with this forecast. I expect the nam and the gfs to come into full agreement by tomorrow...and expect the Euro and CMC to follow.
These Upper level lows are tricky so im not going to make a call map for this system...I expect the ULL and its 850mb cold pool to be centered over the state tuesday with temps ranging from freezing to the high 30's. Expect snow to start around tuesday around morning in east TN and snow could be heavy and wet at times with temps falling a little as it gets dark.
Wednesday morning will feature snow showers in the morning changing to rain/sleet in the evening...but the rain/sleet will be short lived as the cold front sweeps thru rather quickly bringing with it more snow showers which could be in the form of cold advection squalls which would automatically lay on top of what snow managed to lay on tuesday. With temps struggling to reach 40 on tuesday I can see how some areas could pick up 1-3 inches especially in northern sections. Depending on how much precip will be with the NW flow behind the cold frond.... it is very possible top see another inch or two.
I realize people at the NWS are wanting to wait to see if modeleing gets any better but I believe in giving people a heads up as soon as possible....and I am now confident enough to throw out some rough numbers
My predictions on snow accums are as follows
Southern Valley Chatanooga and Athens area = Coating to a dusting
Central Valley Knoxville and Jefferson City area = Dusting to 2 inches as much as 3 locally
NE TN Tri cities Morristown area = 1 to 4 inches as much as 5 locally
Plateau area = 3 to 5 inches with as much as 7 locally
Smoky Mountains = 6 to 9 inches with as much as a foot plus locally
All accumulations have an error rate of plus or minus 1 inch and these totals may be updated monday
Models are starting to come into better agreement and im going to go ahead with a forecast strictly for east TN based mainly off the GFS ensembles and my model of choice is the GFS op since it has been more consistent than the others. It did stray away from the closed low over the TN valley for a few runs but as expected it has trended right back to it and now the nam is hinting at the same posibility. The Euro has been all over the place with the cutoff low so have discounted it with this forecast. I expect the nam and the gfs to come into full agreement by tomorrow...and expect the Euro and CMC to follow.
These Upper level lows are tricky so im not going to make a call map for this system...I expect the ULL and its 850mb cold pool to be centered over the state tuesday with temps ranging from freezing to the high 30's. Expect snow to start around tuesday around morning in east TN and snow could be heavy and wet at times with temps falling a little as it gets dark.
Wednesday morning will feature snow showers in the morning changing to rain/sleet in the evening...but the rain/sleet will be short lived as the cold front sweeps thru rather quickly bringing with it more snow showers which could be in the form of cold advection squalls which would automatically lay on top of what snow managed to lay on tuesday. With temps struggling to reach 40 on tuesday I can see how some areas could pick up 1-3 inches especially in northern sections. Depending on how much precip will be with the NW flow behind the cold frond.... it is very possible top see another inch or two.
I realize people at the NWS are wanting to wait to see if modeleing gets any better but I believe in giving people a heads up as soon as possible....and I am now confident enough to throw out some rough numbers
My predictions on snow accums are as follows
Southern Valley Chatanooga and Athens area = Coating to a dusting
Central Valley Knoxville and Jefferson City area = Dusting to 2 inches as much as 3 locally
NE TN Tri cities Morristown area = 1 to 4 inches as much as 5 locally
Plateau area = 3 to 5 inches with as much as 7 locally
Smoky Mountains = 6 to 9 inches with as much as a foot plus locally
All accumulations have an error rate of plus or minus 1 inch and these totals may be updated monday
Thursday, November 24, 2011
The Late NOV/Early DEC Pattern Change Is Here
Good Evening
The Models are in somewhat of agreement that things are going to get VERY cold as we get into Dec Just like i said would happen a few blogs back. The GFS and ensembles are showing below normal temps as far as the eye can see. with the gfs showing a snowstorm next weekend. Looks like my winter forecast is going to verify thru December if models are correct...but right now I have been so busy tracking the Strong ULL system. And here is my threat level map for that right now.
The Models are in somewhat of agreement that things are going to get VERY cold as we get into Dec Just like i said would happen a few blogs back. The GFS and ensembles are showing below normal temps as far as the eye can see. with the gfs showing a snowstorm next weekend. Looks like my winter forecast is going to verify thru December if models are correct...but right now I have been so busy tracking the Strong ULL system. And here is my threat level map for that right now.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Snowstorm Set To Affect Where?
Good Evening
Very active period coming up with at least two rounds of severe weather and a snowstorm. Since I have already blogged about the severe weather we will talk about the possible snow in this blog. Nearly all models have come into agreement of closing off an upper level low and retrograding this system into the Ohio Valley/ Great lakes region. There is very good support for this to happen and this is not your everday ULL either...this is being advertised as a very deep and potent upper level low.
There are many smaller scale details to workout such as the exact track of this system and the exact strength of this system. Most models close this low off near the TN valley and move it up towards the great lakes where it just sits and spins for days. In my opinion this is the most likely track for this system and the one that I will use to go into more detail.
IF this scenario plays out there will be snow falling in the TN valley as thickness values crash behind the cold front. Now being that this system gets cutoff from the jetstream it will have nothing to steer it and it will just sit and spin over the great lakes for a few days where it will fetch precip all the way down into Tennessee and maybe even further south. This is a very powerful system and it will likely grab vort maxes from several hundred miles away and rotate them thru the area as it is spinning over the lakes.
Its way to early to be talking about where any accumulation occurs as we still dont know the exact track....models have latched on to the general scenario that I have just told you about but there will likely be several changes as the models get a better handle on this situation and exactly where the snow occurs will become more clear...but there will be a very large area that will be effected by the snow and as of right now
Very active period coming up with at least two rounds of severe weather and a snowstorm. Since I have already blogged about the severe weather we will talk about the possible snow in this blog. Nearly all models have come into agreement of closing off an upper level low and retrograding this system into the Ohio Valley/ Great lakes region. There is very good support for this to happen and this is not your everday ULL either...this is being advertised as a very deep and potent upper level low.
There are many smaller scale details to workout such as the exact track of this system and the exact strength of this system. Most models close this low off near the TN valley and move it up towards the great lakes where it just sits and spins for days. In my opinion this is the most likely track for this system and the one that I will use to go into more detail.
IF this scenario plays out there will be snow falling in the TN valley as thickness values crash behind the cold front. Now being that this system gets cutoff from the jetstream it will have nothing to steer it and it will just sit and spin over the great lakes for a few days where it will fetch precip all the way down into Tennessee and maybe even further south. This is a very powerful system and it will likely grab vort maxes from several hundred miles away and rotate them thru the area as it is spinning over the lakes.
Its way to early to be talking about where any accumulation occurs as we still dont know the exact track....models have latched on to the general scenario that I have just told you about but there will likely be several changes as the models get a better handle on this situation and exactly where the snow occurs will become more clear...but there will be a very large area that will be effected by the snow and as of right now
Saturday, November 19, 2011
Severe Weather Possibility
Morning
This morning while looking at the weather models it has become clear to me that the possibility of some dangerous thunderstorms would exist in the east TN area in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. This system is alot like the last severe system but unlike last weeks severe wx system the center of the low will be further north and the dynamics will also be further north...so the high shear low cape enviroment would tend to be in our backyard instead of places like Auburn AL.
There will be a surface high near the SC/GA coast aiding the warm moisture fetch from the gulf of mexico...this feature was what really caught my attention....not only will we have a low pumping deep tropical like moisture into the area...there will also be a high helping to add fuel to the thunderstorms.
With all that said there is still alot of time for changes in modeling to occur and there is no reason to panic at this point...there is a threat but it's far from a certainty yet. There will be changes and we would have to stay pretty dry and sunny ahead of this frontal system for severe weather to occur.
This morning while looking at the weather models it has become clear to me that the possibility of some dangerous thunderstorms would exist in the east TN area in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. This system is alot like the last severe system but unlike last weeks severe wx system the center of the low will be further north and the dynamics will also be further north...so the high shear low cape enviroment would tend to be in our backyard instead of places like Auburn AL.
There will be a surface high near the SC/GA coast aiding the warm moisture fetch from the gulf of mexico...this feature was what really caught my attention....not only will we have a low pumping deep tropical like moisture into the area...there will also be a high helping to add fuel to the thunderstorms.
With all that said there is still alot of time for changes in modeling to occur and there is no reason to panic at this point...there is a threat but it's far from a certainty yet. There will be changes and we would have to stay pretty dry and sunny ahead of this frontal system for severe weather to occur.
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Thanksgiving Changes?
Good morning
Winter wx lovers from across the east have been waiting for their return to a cold pattern and its fun to try an speculate when this will happen and it will happen. Im hearing alot of naysayers from various places across the internet...saying it holds off til January. Let me tell you right up front that they have no idea what they are talking about. There is no accurate way to forecast weather as far out as January.
Im becoming excited for some mischief a couple of days after thanksgiving...models are starting to converge on a major storm. Some of the latest are showing the potential for some snow across the Tennessee valley as a strong piece of upper level energy rotates thru the area. Its still a good ways out and climatology argues against it so dont go holding me to that just yet.
I was obviously wrong about the current system but I have much more confidence in the post thanksgiving system. This system could very well be the one that sends into more sustainable cold and I would say the chances of that are pretty good as teleconnections sorta point to that but these colder airmasses have had a tendecy to be replaced with warmer airmasses lately...I think that changes with the late month system. The thanksgiving system also has the potential to produce some severe wx where the best dynamics locate theirselves. It was about this time last year when we entered the colder regime and my money is on the same thing this year.
There will be quite the warmup before this system and that just tends to make things more interesting when the colder airmass colides with the warmer one. Anyways it looks like one of the bigger systems to come thru since Halloween and I expect extreme weather from it in several places...but it will be hard to pinpoint these locations this far out...so as this timeframe gets closer I will try to do just that...Its off to work now and you have a good day.
Toot
Winter wx lovers from across the east have been waiting for their return to a cold pattern and its fun to try an speculate when this will happen and it will happen. Im hearing alot of naysayers from various places across the internet...saying it holds off til January. Let me tell you right up front that they have no idea what they are talking about. There is no accurate way to forecast weather as far out as January.
Im becoming excited for some mischief a couple of days after thanksgiving...models are starting to converge on a major storm. Some of the latest are showing the potential for some snow across the Tennessee valley as a strong piece of upper level energy rotates thru the area. Its still a good ways out and climatology argues against it so dont go holding me to that just yet.
I was obviously wrong about the current system but I have much more confidence in the post thanksgiving system. This system could very well be the one that sends into more sustainable cold and I would say the chances of that are pretty good as teleconnections sorta point to that but these colder airmasses have had a tendecy to be replaced with warmer airmasses lately...I think that changes with the late month system. The thanksgiving system also has the potential to produce some severe wx where the best dynamics locate theirselves. It was about this time last year when we entered the colder regime and my money is on the same thing this year.
There will be quite the warmup before this system and that just tends to make things more interesting when the colder airmass colides with the warmer one. Anyways it looks like one of the bigger systems to come thru since Halloween and I expect extreme weather from it in several places...but it will be hard to pinpoint these locations this far out...so as this timeframe gets closer I will try to do just that...Its off to work now and you have a good day.
Toot
Saturday, November 12, 2011
November Rain
Good Evening...The weather of recent has been pleasant and dry....but a very wet system is on the way early to mid week. This will be a rather large "southern slider" that could bring some severe weather to the MS delta and Gulf coastal regions and it could pack several days of rain here in east TN with some backside snow showers in the mountains. After the rain moves out expect another colder air mass to settle in... allthough not as cold and long lasting as I first thought it would be.
More importantly...there has been a very big pattern change in the northern polar regions that will build the snowpack in the regions from where we get our cold air. So...the longer this fall to winter pattern change takes to build in the more brutal it will be when it finally gets here.
The same pattern change that recently took place up near the pole has also activated an "El Nino" like southern jet stream here in the CONUS. This feature could possibly set up a strong low pressure system near the November 20th timeframe and any future LPS has the potential to be the one that changes the pattern as I expect it to happen this month.
Teleconnections support the winter pattern change near the Thanksgiving timeframe but i'm still not sure it wont occur before then. My eyes are on the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) because this will need to change before the winter pattern can set in and there is signs of this changing soon.
At any rate the models are still not very trustworthy beyond a 120 hrs... so i'm not really comfortable talking about much beyond that range...have a good night.
Toot
More importantly...there has been a very big pattern change in the northern polar regions that will build the snowpack in the regions from where we get our cold air. So...the longer this fall to winter pattern change takes to build in the more brutal it will be when it finally gets here.
The same pattern change that recently took place up near the pole has also activated an "El Nino" like southern jet stream here in the CONUS. This feature could possibly set up a strong low pressure system near the November 20th timeframe and any future LPS has the potential to be the one that changes the pattern as I expect it to happen this month.
Teleconnections support the winter pattern change near the Thanksgiving timeframe but i'm still not sure it wont occur before then. My eyes are on the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) because this will need to change before the winter pattern can set in and there is signs of this changing soon.
At any rate the models are still not very trustworthy beyond a 120 hrs... so i'm not really comfortable talking about much beyond that range...have a good night.
Toot
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
EAST VS WEST BLOCKING
Good evening....The rain has stopped here and temps will be on there way down as the colder air works its way into the region due to the cold front and associated upper level troff moving through the area this weekend. Look for highs near 50 with lows near 25 in the valley for the next couple of days then more seasonal temps will move back in.
The models and teleconnections suggest there will be a rather strong system in mid November but are undecided on track and intensity. We are entering a transitional timeframe of were fall will switch to winter...but the PNA and NAO are battling it out right now...and the PNA is currently still winning BUT the NAO looks to throw a knockout punch to the PNA as cross polar flow is setting up and that will aid to the dominance of the NAO block eventually.
The AO begins to slide towards negative the latter half of the month and thats as good as sign you will get right now that things will begin to get colder.
As long as the global models are still struggling with the mid month low pressure system the graphics beyond a few days will not be very accurate ... when they start sampling the mid month system we will get a clearer picture of when this fall to winter transition will take place. We have been stairstepping into what looks to be an extremely cold December but there will be a notable change in November but the exact date is still hard to pin down....at this moment I would guess somewhere between the 16th and 20th of November and there could be some fireworks along this systems cold front that will signal the end of fall..
The models and teleconnections suggest there will be a rather strong system in mid November but are undecided on track and intensity. We are entering a transitional timeframe of were fall will switch to winter...but the PNA and NAO are battling it out right now...and the PNA is currently still winning BUT the NAO looks to throw a knockout punch to the PNA as cross polar flow is setting up and that will aid to the dominance of the NAO block eventually.
The AO begins to slide towards negative the latter half of the month and thats as good as sign you will get right now that things will begin to get colder.
As long as the global models are still struggling with the mid month low pressure system the graphics beyond a few days will not be very accurate ... when they start sampling the mid month system we will get a clearer picture of when this fall to winter transition will take place. We have been stairstepping into what looks to be an extremely cold December but there will be a notable change in November but the exact date is still hard to pin down....at this moment I would guess somewhere between the 16th and 20th of November and there could be some fireworks along this systems cold front that will signal the end of fall..
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
Nice Warmup Then Winter To Come On Strong
Good evening....Been your basic late fall weather here lately in this neck of the woods. Expect more of the same with a nice warmup as a ridge of high pressure will move in and take control of our weather. This feature will control most of our weather until the middle of the month. Then the bottom looks to drop out.
Long range teleconnections and models have been very consistent in dropping winter in the last half of November. As I have blogged about several times...BLOCKING BLOCKING BLOCKING. No reason to change my thoughts now as it is now looking more and more likely.
An early season (Around NOV 15th) moderate to strong arctic outbreak is now looking likely as model ensembles are really honing in on this feature. Several members are dropping the polar vortex into the eastern conus near the middle of the month and its very possible that we could be talking highs in the 20's if this happens. NAO blocking looks to establish itself in full force and this pattern usually sets in for the gist of the winter. I just thought I would give a very early heads up on this.
Last winter this didnt happen until december but I believe winter will start early this year.
Long range teleconnections and models have been very consistent in dropping winter in the last half of November. As I have blogged about several times...BLOCKING BLOCKING BLOCKING. No reason to change my thoughts now as it is now looking more and more likely.
An early season (Around NOV 15th) moderate to strong arctic outbreak is now looking likely as model ensembles are really honing in on this feature. Several members are dropping the polar vortex into the eastern conus near the middle of the month and its very possible that we could be talking highs in the 20's if this happens. NAO blocking looks to establish itself in full force and this pattern usually sets in for the gist of the winter. I just thought I would give a very early heads up on this.
Last winter this didnt happen until december but I believe winter will start early this year.
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