This morning while looking at the weather models it has become clear to me that the possibility of some dangerous thunderstorms would exist in the east TN area in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. This system is alot like the last severe system but unlike last weeks severe wx system the center of the low will be further north and the dynamics will also be further north...so the high shear low cape enviroment would tend to be in our backyard instead of places like Auburn AL.
There will be a surface high near the SC/GA coast aiding the warm moisture fetch from the gulf of mexico...this feature was what really caught my attention....not only will we have a low pumping deep tropical like moisture into the area...there will also be a high helping to add fuel to the thunderstorms.
With all that said there is still alot of time for changes in modeling to occur and there is no reason to panic at this point...there is a threat but it's far from a certainty yet. There will be changes and we would have to stay pretty dry and sunny ahead of this frontal system for severe weather to occur.
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