Good Evening
Very active period coming up with at least two rounds of severe weather and a snowstorm. Since I have already blogged about the severe weather we will talk about the possible snow in this blog. Nearly all models have come into agreement of closing off an upper level low and retrograding this system into the Ohio Valley/ Great lakes region. There is very good support for this to happen and this is not your everday ULL either...this is being advertised as a very deep and potent upper level low.
There are many smaller scale details to workout such as the exact track of this system and the exact strength of this system. Most models close this low off near the TN valley and move it up towards the great lakes where it just sits and spins for days. In my opinion this is the most likely track for this system and the one that I will use to go into more detail.
IF this scenario plays out there will be snow falling in the TN valley as thickness values crash behind the cold front. Now being that this system gets cutoff from the jetstream it will have nothing to steer it and it will just sit and spin over the great lakes for a few days where it will fetch precip all the way down into Tennessee and maybe even further south. This is a very powerful system and it will likely grab vort maxes from several hundred miles away and rotate them thru the area as it is spinning over the lakes.
Its way to early to be talking about where any accumulation occurs as we still dont know the exact track....models have latched on to the general scenario that I have just told you about but there will likely be several changes as the models get a better handle on this situation and exactly where the snow occurs will become more clear...but there will be a very large area that will be effected by the snow and as of right now
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