Nice weekend for a trip to the mountains

Since it is becoming a little clearer that snow will be flying in the highlands of East TN I dont see why a trip to Clingmans Dome would be too much trouble. I plan on going to see the regions first snowflakes in person.

The latest computer models are suggesting upslope snow showers in the highest elevations
Wouldnt surprise me to see a little dusting or so up around  441 area and places like Mt Leconte. At any rate winter conditions are about to invade the area and nothing could make me happier. Expect cool/cold temps and fair weather after the front moves thru elsewhere with some spotty frost possible this weekend.


Some areas in east TN could approach or surpass record low temps.. So if you go out...dont forget to take a jaket with you and have a celebration drink or a cup of hot coffee/cocoa in honor of the seasons first snowflakes  :)

Thats all for now

Toot

Snow to return to the Eastern US.... with cooler temps in store for us

After a brief warmup this week the Jetstream drops south and steers the stubborn upper level low away... these features will combine to produce some snow showers in the northern Appalachian region and along the spine. As this system pulls away it will allow an area of canadian high pressure to settle in and take control of our weather. This will mean clear skies and relatively cool to cold nights here in east TN.

This will be the strongest shot of cold weather this season so it might feel quite cool on the skin and we could see the first frost advisories go out in the area. Looks like highs around 70 and lows around 40, give or take a few degrees. After this cold shot, look for more severe weather and even a stronger shot of cold air near the middle of October.

Stay warm

Toot

2011-2012 Winter Outlook

It looks as if the Winter Pattern is already establishing itself and the Euro model is predicting the NAO/AO to go Negative near the end of the month. I look for it to stay that way for the most part of winter. What this will cause is Greenland Blocking and it will put the eastern U.S into a deep troff for the better part of the season, you can already see this pattern setting up. There isn't much left now but for the Jetstream to head south, and I expect that to happen in late October to early November.

There is so much data pointing towards a winter alot like the last two... but possibly colder than the last two. I'm not going to go into a bunch of meteorological terms.... there is just so much overwhelming evidence (Solar activity, Blocking , -NAO/AO, Atlantic sea surface temps, LRC etc etc etc.) to support a cold and snowy winter in the Eastern US. Some of the colder analogs that have been thrown around alot are.... the winter of 1899, 1917 and 1985. Those are some extreme examples of a cold winter in the eastern U.S and lets hope it dont get as cold as 1899..... but those analogs fit the shoe of this winter, I even used 85 in making this outlook.

So what I come up with is a persistant troff over the eastern U.S with a active to very active subtropical jet, with a weak ridge out west. That ridge will be key to just how cold we get. If it gets alot taller out west it could get BRUTALLY cold. 

Just know one thing... it will be a cold winter compared to most.

     Temp Outlook (The brown represents "near average")

  Snowfall Outlook


  

  Main Stormtracks

Raleigh NC Circa 1899

 Tallahassee FL Snowball fight circa 1899

The Seasons First Upper Level Low

Our first Fall/winter ULL system will become cuttoff and park itself over the Ohio Valley region towards the end of the week. If it were later in the season this would have been a snow maker in the TN valley region, but since it's still early fall and temps are still relatively mild.... we will have to settle for the beneficial rain.

I do expect some exciting weather out of this system somewhere in the eastern US.... but as with all upper level systems, trying to pin that down will drive you nutty. I wouldn't rule out a strong to severe T-storm somewhere in the TN valley but with the packed in cloud cover...this system will be nothing to write home about.

After this stubborn ULL pulls away, the troff over the eastern US will deepen and temps will begin to fall with the NW flow winds becoming dominant. Might have to break out a jacket for the first time this season... as lows could briefly drop down into the high 40's in the east TN valley and low 40's to high 30's in the higher elevated areas... if skies become clear enough for radiational cooling to take place.

Toot

A Tale Of The Reoccuring Weather Pattern

While waiting on the Vols game to start... I wanted to talk about Lezaks Recurring Cycle. About two years ago I ran upon this article about a Fall weather pattern regenerating itself several times through the fall and winter. So to see if there was any truth to this I begin watching where and how synoptic scale patterns and storms formed and behaved across the CONUS. Low and behold I started to see what this guy was talking about.

Patterns were forming in the fall and washing theirselves out and then setting up again in a simular if not the same fashion that they set up before. I WAS AMAZED.....Now I consider this a very useful tool in Long Range Forecasting, and I think someone that uses the LRC to forecast the Long Range has a definate edge over somebody who dont.

This is how it works in general...(I wouldnt pay too much attention to the dates, because I think they can vary a couple of weeks in either direction)

1. A Unique wx pattern sets up every Fall around the first of October to the first of November.

2.Longtem longwave troughs and ridges establish theirselves over the northern hemisphere.

3.This pattern cycles and repeats itself over and over again until it slowly weakens and falls apart in the summer.

http://lrcweather.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=34:what-is-the-lrc&catid=2:lrc&Itemid=2

If this interests you I suggest you watch it happen right before your very own eyes this coming season.

And one more thing....GO VOLS

Toot

A look into the LONGER range

The long range wx models are liking the idea of a cool and unsettled wx pattern in the extended range. I expect unseasonably cool temps for the remainder of the month, with several bouts of rainy low pressure sytsems. A series of "Lakes Cutter" type storms will push several cold fronts through the state with each one gradually bringing cooler air behind it.

Also the "Lakes Cutter's" should move their stormcenter's southward, closer and closer to us as the jetstream moves south for the fall/winter. As the stormcenter's get closer, the fall severe wx threat will increase due to the system's dynamics getting closer aslo, until finally one really taps into the cold canadian air and ends up changing the pattern into a more winter like climate.

I expect this pattern changing storm sometime in the first half of October, and it could produce some severe weather in the regional area with some possible HIGH elevation snow showers on the back end of the storm. More winter-like conditions will follow... and by Halloween we should be locked into some unseasonably cold temps with near average precipitation.

The current pattern is really more of a LATE fall type pattern than it is an early one, and there is no reason to think that the cycle of (seasonal change before scheduled) will not continue into winter.


I truly believe that this will be one of the coolest fall's that we have experienced in several years.

For those of you that are waiting on my final winter outlook and haven't seen my preliminary winter outlook You can do so by clicking Here...I dont expect major changes to the existing outlook at this time but the New one should be out by October the first.

Toot

Cool Start to Fall

A cold front has pushed thru Tennessee and radiational cooling will take place in the clear spots across thestate, while it never really got that warm to start with in the eastern part of the state due to cloud cover. Tomorrow's highs may not reach the 70 degree mark in some spots with the cooler air mass and winds out of the NNW.... with lows tomorrow night flirting with record levels in the eastern part of the state that get lucky enough to get breaks in the clouds. If you stay cloudy tomorrow night expect lows around 50, but if you get clear skies expect lows in the mid to lower 40's.

Summer is basically over and fun times are about to begin. This is my new site where I will post my thoughts as well as my forecasts. I used to post most of them at Tennesseewx.com but that has recently changed. You can come here for reliable info on key changes in the weather... long before they actually change.

I will be updating this page as I get free time, and I realize it looks pretty plain-jane right now and un-informational... but that will quickly change. I will be issuing my final winter forecast here towards the end of September-first of October.

I also will be posting about KEY changes in the wx pattern across the US. This will not be a everyday updating Blog ...just the interesting and bigger changes in the WX pattern, allthough I will probably have daily updates here in the winter months.

I encourage everybody to stop by and comment as much as they like as this is a moderator free enviroment, where you can say whatever you wish and I do encourage fiery discussion.