Good Evening...The weather of recent has been pleasant and dry....but a very wet system is on the way early to mid week. This will be a rather large "southern slider" that could bring some severe weather to the MS delta and Gulf coastal regions and it could pack several days of rain here in east TN with some backside snow showers in the mountains. After the rain moves out expect another colder air mass to settle in... allthough not as cold and long lasting as I first thought it would be.
More importantly...there has been a very big pattern change in the northern polar regions that will build the snowpack in the regions from where we get our cold air. So...the longer this fall to winter pattern change takes to build in the more brutal it will be when it finally gets here.
The same pattern change that recently took place up near the pole has also activated an "El Nino" like southern jet stream here in the CONUS. This feature could possibly set up a strong low pressure system near the November 20th timeframe and any future LPS has the potential to be the one that changes the pattern as I expect it to happen this month.
Teleconnections support the winter pattern change near the Thanksgiving timeframe but i'm still not sure it wont occur before then. My eyes are on the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) because this will need to change before the winter pattern can set in and there is signs of this changing soon.
At any rate the models are still not very trustworthy beyond a 120 hrs... so i'm not really comfortable talking about much beyond that range...have a good night.
Toot
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