Good evening....The rain has stopped here and temps will be on there way down as the colder air works its way into the region due to the cold front and associated upper level troff moving through the area this weekend. Look for highs near 50 with lows near 25 in the valley for the next couple of days then more seasonal temps will move back in.
The models and teleconnections suggest there will be a rather strong system in mid November but are undecided on track and intensity. We are entering a transitional timeframe of were fall will switch to winter...but the PNA and NAO are battling it out right now...and the PNA is currently still winning BUT the NAO looks to throw a knockout punch to the PNA as cross polar flow is setting up and that will aid to the dominance of the NAO block eventually.
The AO begins to slide towards negative the latter half of the month and thats as good as sign you will get right now that things will begin to get colder.
As long as the global models are still struggling with the mid month low pressure system the graphics beyond a few days will not be very accurate ... when they start sampling the mid month system we will get a clearer picture of when this fall to winter transition will take place. We have been stairstepping into what looks to be an extremely cold December but there will be a notable change in November but the exact date is still hard to pin down....at this moment I would guess somewhere between the 16th and 20th of November and there could be some fireworks along this systems cold front that will signal the end of fall..
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