Nice Warmup Then Winter To Come On Strong

Good evening....Been your basic late fall weather here lately in this neck of the woods. Expect more of the same with a nice warmup as a ridge of high pressure will move in and take control of our weather. This feature will control most of our weather until the middle of the month. Then the bottom looks to drop out.

Long range teleconnections and models have been very consistent in dropping winter in the last half of November. As I have blogged about several times...BLOCKING BLOCKING BLOCKING. No reason to change my thoughts now as it is now looking more and more likely.

An early season (Around NOV 15th)  moderate to strong arctic outbreak is now looking likely as model ensembles are really honing in on this feature. Several members are dropping the polar vortex into the eastern conus near the middle of the month and its very possible that we could be talking highs in the 20's if this happens. NAO blocking looks to establish itself in full force and this pattern usually sets in for the gist of the winter. I just thought I would give a very early heads up on this.

Last winter this didnt happen until december but I believe winter will start early this year.