Winter Pattern Has Established Itself

Good morning...Got down to 29 degrees here last night with a heavy frost. Looks like a small warmup will occur early this week ahead of  a arctic airmass intrusion near next weekend. This strong cold front will stall out over the eastern U.S giving time for a large and powerful Low pressure system to form near the Arklatex and Gulf coast region late in the week.

This powerful storm will ride up this stalled out cold front somewhere along the spine of the Appalachian mtns or closer to the eastern coast of the US. After this system pulls away the coldest air of the season will infiltrate the region yet again. There is a chance that this system could lay a swath of snow down somewhere from the midwest to the east coast. I expect the mountains will get a good dose of snow also...but as the system mingles with the colder air it could also produce some wet snowflakes very far south for this time of year and somebody could get a little surprise.

I would look for the upper low to get cutoff  somewhere near the Ohio Valley as they have been doing alot this season and this system could be powerful enough to really kick in the upslope snow machine in southern Appalachians if that happens.

Welcome to the winter pattern and the first big winter cyclone of the season.

Toot