Updated Winter Outlook

Due to recent changes in the weather pattern it has become a little clearer to me of how this winter should behave..and I have a made a few changes to my winter outlook. The biggest change are the much below temps in the Great lakes region and the Ohio and Tennessee Valley areas. The cause of this is the blocking pattern that has already established itself.

The negative tendecies of the NAO/AO is already overwhelming the flow across the US and causing this chronic blocking pattern which in turn will cause the much below normal temps. The La Nina looks like it will end up weaker than what I once thought and this will also contribute to the below normal temps. But the NAO/AO is the big story here...without these the winter would be pretty mundane.

The fall season got an early start and so will the winter...we have all seen these upper level lows that have dominated the weather pattern this fall. They have been getting cutoff over the Ohio valley region. With nothing to steer them... they just stall out and keep churning precip and cold air into the northern portions of the state. Using the LRC theory.... these will be the main weather makers this winter..and alot of our snow will come from these. So I expect snowfall to be much above average in the northern half of the state this winter due to this.

I once thought the southern stream would be very active this winter... but that is looking less likely now. But when these troffs swing thru and really amplify deeply this winter there will be the chance of southern stream low pressure systems forming in and around the gulf of Mexico. There still could be alot of these..but that depends on how deep the troffs amplify and sustain theirselves this winter. I expect there will be at least a couple of these this year and those will be the bigger snow makers in the southeast. These have the potential to be major snowstorms if the PNA cooperates and this is where the southern sections of the state will get their slightly above average snowfall totals from.

I expect most of our winter weather in the month of December as -NAO winters usually feature a very snowy december's here. Now.... this whole seasonal change before schedule will continue right into the spring and by Febuary I expect warmer than normal temps and this period could be quite active when it comes to severe weather..but that is still a LONG ways out.

All in all... I think this winter will behave alot like last... with the exception of the dominating upper level lows  and the winter getting an earlier start and end.

Temps

 Precip