Arctic Air Set to Invade The Region

The GFS weather model and its ensemble members have been fairly consistent with a massive dump of arctic air into the region in about a weeks time. The foreign models such as the CMC and the EURO have been struggling with this setup...so I have chosen to side with the GFS.

The GFS has also been consistent with a powerful low pressure system affecting the region....but has still not decided if this will be a northern stream or a sounthern stream solution...and it could very well be a mixture of the two.

Climatology would suggest this would more likely be a northern stream solution but the deeply amplified trough that will allow the rare October Arctic air invasion could suggest a more southern stream solution. If it ended up being the more north scenario then some severe weather would be possible across the state and possible high elevation backdoor snow. If it were more a southern stream scenario then severe wx wouldnt be as likely and valley snow would be possible.... with heavy snow in the mountains.

As much as I would like to side with one of these scenarios...it just wouldnt be real wise to do so just yet...one thing that does look likely is the widespread killing freeze/frost and some healthy mountain snow with this timeframe. That seems like a sure bet as of now...but valley snow is still a very real possibility with this timeframe...just dont have enough evidence to support a definate answer on that just yet.

Will continue to monitor this situation in the coming days and will keep you posted on data as it comes in on what i'm considering the first actual snow threat to the valley locations.

Toot