Winter Cancel? What?

Im growing tired of the cancel winter calls I am hearing...meteorological winter so far has not been a torch by any means...its been near normal to slightly above tempwise so far this December... Calendar winter has not even started yet and yeah that does have meaning..it's called winter solstice. With that said.... long periods of a tanking AO and a NAO block are not the normal December conditions here either... no matter how bad you may want to see those conditions...Wild swings in temps and patterns are more normal at this lattitude during the period of seasonal change from fall to winter.

Now I realize that people (including me) were expecting the neg NAO/AO to happen in December and it hasn't but it seems people have been spoiled by the last two winters and somehow think that cold and snowy is the normal pattern in December...its not!! People seem to forget that this is the southeastern united states and most unelevated places around here only average one or two days of an inch or more of snowfall during winter. Just remember there has already been two snow events already in the south even though they might have not been in your backyard.

Anybody making such broad statements as "cancel winter weather in so and so month" is completely wacko..I dont care who they are or what forum they post on. Nobody can make such a broad statement like that with ANY accuracy. If they cancelled winter weather for the months of November and December they are already wrong for parts of the mid-south... as they have already had two winter events no matter how long it may have stayed on the ground.

When there is not much confidence in any guidance it's pretty hard to argue with January climatology (which would be our snowiest month) especially if your basing your argument on relatively new teleconnect indices in the long range. People seem to think its allright to trust forcasted teleconnections in the long range but not model graphics when neither is very accurate for some reason. So no thanks...I will stick with climatology at this point