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Friday, December 23, 2011

Good Signs Of The Long Awaited Pattern Change

Good Evening and Happy Holidays

The weather lately has been pretty boring unless you like rain (It's certainly not my cup of tea) if you are a regualr reader of this blog you have probably heard me speak of a pattern change to more winter like conditions in several different posts and each time they never seem to stick and that has been due to the lack of blocking signals.

The pattern of late has been one of a "here today and gone tomorrow" type but several well trusted models are in general agreement that this is gonna change abrubtly in the new year. Blocking signals are starting to show up strongly in the NAO and PNA regions....lets not confuse the 500mb signals with the teleconnection signals because they are two different signals and dont always support each other. I expect a strong cold front near New Years that will be transported by what looks to be a clipper type system and if enough cold air is already in place we might get to witness one of those rare snow squall lines that set up along the cold front of some clippers during favorable conditions.

Several forecasters originally called for a cold winter but several of the same long range forecasters have since changed their tune to more of a warmer winter. Not me...im sticking with my guns and I fully expect the pattern change to happen around New Years. The AO has been off the charts positive for nearly two months and that is about as long as that usually happens so our saving grace is that it went positive early in fall and now has nowhere to go but to more neutral or negative values.


Toot

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