A look into the LONGER range

The long range wx models are liking the idea of a cool and unsettled wx pattern in the extended range. I expect unseasonably cool temps for the remainder of the month, with several bouts of rainy low pressure sytsems. A series of "Lakes Cutter" type storms will push several cold fronts through the state with each one gradually bringing cooler air behind it.

Also the "Lakes Cutter's" should move their stormcenter's southward, closer and closer to us as the jetstream moves south for the fall/winter. As the stormcenter's get closer, the fall severe wx threat will increase due to the system's dynamics getting closer aslo, until finally one really taps into the cold canadian air and ends up changing the pattern into a more winter like climate.

I expect this pattern changing storm sometime in the first half of October, and it could produce some severe weather in the regional area with some possible HIGH elevation snow showers on the back end of the storm. More winter-like conditions will follow... and by Halloween we should be locked into some unseasonably cold temps with near average precipitation.

The current pattern is really more of a LATE fall type pattern than it is an early one, and there is no reason to think that the cycle of (seasonal change before scheduled) will not continue into winter.


I truly believe that this will be one of the coolest fall's that we have experienced in several years.

For those of you that are waiting on my final winter outlook and haven't seen my preliminary winter outlook You can do so by clicking Here...I dont expect major changes to the existing outlook at this time but the New one should be out by October the first.

Toot