Toot's Weather Spot: 2011-2012 Winter Outlook

It looks as if the Winter Pattern is already establishing itself and the Euro model is predicting the NAO/AO to go Negative near the end of the month. I look for it to stay that way for the most part of winter. What this will cause is Greenland Blocking and it will put the eastern U.S into a deep troff for the better part of the season, you can already see this pattern setting up. There isn't much left now but for the Jetstream to head south, and I expect that to happen in late October to early November.

There is so much data pointing towards a winter alot like the last two... but possibly colder than the last two. I'm not going to go into a bunch of meteorological terms.... there is just so much overwhelming evidence (Solar activity, Blocking , -NAO/AO, Atlantic sea surface temps, LRC etc etc etc.) to support a cold and snowy winter in the Eastern US. Some of the colder analogs that have been thrown around alot are.... the winter of 1899, 1917 and 1985. Those are some extreme examples of a cold winter in the eastern U.S and lets hope it dont get as cold as 1899..... but those analogs fit the shoe of this winter, I even used 85 in making this outlook.

So what I come up with is a persistant troff over the eastern U.S with a active to very active subtropical jet, with a weak ridge out west. That ridge will be key to just how cold we get. If it gets alot taller out west it could get BRUTALLY cold.

Just know one thing... it will be a cold winter compared to most.

Temp Outlook (The brown represents "near average")