Wintry Mess of Ice Sleet Snow and Rain

This is a forecast put together with todays SREF and NAM models..this forecast is highly dependant on the temp profiles of those models. If they are off a hair it could make for big changes in the outcome...this will ultimately be a nowcast situation but it seemed to be a rough one so I thought I would give it a shot

Light snow...sleet and freezing rain accumulations will be possible across most of the state on Monday and Tuesday. Particularly concerned for the East TN valley where I think the most ice accumulations will be possible.

Looking at soundings and mostly SREF data it appears that a mixed bag of weather will move into the state from west to east. With very low dewpoints already in place precip will move into the area as Virga but as the column becomes saturated precip will start to fall in the form of snow.

The snow could fall at impressive rates at times in the western and southern parts of the state. At some point the snow will transition to wintry mix and then to rain over most of the state. I imagine the plateau and mountain regions of the state could pick up several inches of snow in a fairly quick fashion.

The east TN valley poses a unique threat for Ice accumulation in excess of more than .10 inches due to the nature of local topography. After some possible light accumulations of snow the cold air might become trapped in low lying valley areas and freezing temps could stick around for a longer period of time but meanwhile the upper atmosphere temps will warm to above freezing resulting in longer periods of ice accumulations on top of light snow accums. Light Ice accums appear likely for parts of East TN valley